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Fresh Economic, Retail & Consumer Insights
for Shopper Understanding
Edited and Produced by BIGresearch…Providing Unique
Insights Each Month from the Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey.
February 2008
(Respondents Surveyed 2/5 – 2/12/08)
SPECIAL
EDITION: VIDEO BRIEFING
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This special "video" edition includes a video
briefing which recaps the key consumer insights for the month of
February.
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This newsletter summarizes the pulse of the consumers based on
BIGresearch’s monthly national Consumer Intentions and Actions (CIA)
Survey every month. The CIA survey findings are available by shoppers
of most major retailers and can be licensed and delivered via
electronic download. For more information on the CIA, click
here.
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Every pundit is
throwing around that word recession, and it
appears that consumers unfortunately agree…only
one in four (26.2%) are confident/very confident in
chances for a strong economy in February, a five
year low. What difference a year – and a sinking
housing market, credit collapse, and record prices
at the pump - makes…back in February 2007, twice as
many consumers (53.2%) held high hopes for the
future of our economy:

With the ink
still drying on Congress’ stimulus package, will the
rebate checks lead to an influx of spending on goods
and services?
About a third
(30.3%) contends they’ll save the money in their
piggy banks, a quarter (25.4%) will use it to pay
down credit cards, while 15.7% say they’ll pay down
debt (installment loans). When it comes to
spending, it’ll likely be the grocers and
discounters who will benefit as 14.6% reveal that
they’d purchase necessities with their checks…that
number climbs among those earning under $50,000
(22.5%). And while those aged 18-24 are the most
likely group to save their checks (39.7% say so),
this age bracket is also the most likely to use
their checks toward paying off student loans
(14.9%), buying apparel (13.3%), and purchasing
electronics (11.2%).
No matter your political party, with Bush exiting
the White House change is on the way on Capitol
Hill,
but will the shake-up provide new hopes for
consumers or increased anxiety? This month, more
than one in five (20.6%) say they worry more about
political and national security issues, up more than
two points from January (17.9%) and the highest
reading since October 2006.
While confidence in the economy is plummeting,
retailers should be relieved to know that
practicality remains relatively stable…two
in five (40.2%) contend that they’ve become more
practical in their purchases, down a point from
January (41.2%), though still on the rise from ’07
(38.7%).
Further proof that consumers may be coaxed into
spending (and why retail sales showed a slight
improvement in January)…those
focused on needs over wants in spending declines two
points from January (49.9%) to 48.0% this month,
stable with February 2007’s reading (47.8%).
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Consumers envision a rocky road ahead for the
employment outlook…the
majority (50.4%) contend there will be “more”
layoffs in the next six months, up from 41.5% in
January and the highest reading since March ’03
(50.4%). More than two in five (43.1%) predict
layoff levels will remain the same (v. 50.4% last
month), while 6.6% optimistically assert “fewer” (v.
8.0%). While consumers foresee a dreary outlook for
employment, it seems they have the “it’s not going
to be me” syndrome for who’s to get the pink
slips…5.5% fear becoming laid off, up slightly from
January’s 5.2%.
With close to the majority (46.4%) feeling that
there is "too much month" at the end of their
paychecks all or most of the time,
it should come as no surprise that fewer consumers
are planning to become financially more
conservative…this month, 37.3% contend they plan to
pay down debt over the next three months, flat from
January (37.1%), though down from one year ago
(40.4%)…those planning to increase savings (28.7%)
up slightly from January (28.3%) and down as well
from ’07 (31.1%). Plans to decrease overall
spending (29.3%) and pay with cash more often
(20.2%) decline from 33.7% and 23.0% last month,
respectively, and remain flat with ’07. Stay tuned
to see how the government stimulus package (with
checks to begin arriving in May) affect consumers’
financial plans.
With the Dow flirting with the 12K mark in the past
month (and consumer sentiment taking a nosedive),
investors are feeling a bit bearish
about the market…this month, 53.1% of investors
contend they would definitely/probably invest in the
stock market, down more than eight points from
January (61.2%). Investors planning to buy stocks
declines slightly from January (11.5%) to 11.1%,
while those planning to sell also declines from 5.8%
last month to 4.9%.
With pump prices rising from $2.227/gal one year ago
to today’s average $2.972/gal (source: AAA),
it should come as no surprise that driver’s budgets
are increasingly strained by additional fuel
expenditures. While two in five (40.5%) are
attempting to cope by simply driving less, more than
a third say pump pressures have led them to reduce
dining out (35.3%) and decrease vacation/travel
(33.6%). Additionally, 29.8% are spending less on
clothing while 22.4% are delaying a major purchase,
such as a car or furniture:

However, it appears that drivers are easing up on
their pricing predictions come St. Patrick’s Day…while
half (49.9%) contend that pump prices will rise
through March 17 (compared to the 69.8% who
predicted “more” at Valentine’s Day), 44.2% assert
they’ll remain the same, while 5.8% call for a
decline. Consumers are predicting an average pump
price of $3.11/gal at St. Patty’s, $0.16 lower than
the $3.27 forecasted for Valentine’s Day.
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While the
outlook for the economy has taken a turn for
the worse,
it’s encouraging to note that consumers’
fashion sense hasn’t taken the same
path…close to the majority (45.1%) reveal
that they revel in familiar labels when it
comes to clothing, stable with one year ago
(45.3%). With masstige offerings (prestige
labels available to the masses) increasingly
available on store shelves, it should come
as no surprise that consumers’ liking for
labels has grown through the years:

Although
consumers in general prefer department
stores (27.0%) over discounters (19.0%) and
specialty shops (14.2%) as the stores
shopped most often for Women’s Clothing,
the big W proves it’s still the diva in this
department…11.4% contend they shop Wal-Mart
most often (down from 11.9% in ’07),
followed by the 8.1% who shop Kohl’s
(gaining from 7.6% in ’07)…JC Penney (6.1%),
Macy’s (5.8%), and Target (2.4%) round out
the Top 5.
Wal-Mart’s got a more comfortable lead over
Kohl’s in the Men’s section,
though the department darling has gained
over the past year in this category as
well…the complete Top 5 (February ’07 shares
in parenthesis): 1. Wal-Mart 13.9% (14.4%),
2. Kohl’s 8.5% (7.7%), 3. JC Penney 8.3%
(8.8%), 4. Macy’s 5.2% (5.0%), 5. Sears 3.3%
(3.4%).
In the latest Shoe Wars saga, the big W
posts a not-so-big win over Payless for the
top shop for footwear…Wal-Mart’s
got a slight edge over the discount
specialty with 10.6% share shopped most
often to 10.4%, respectively. Kohl’s
(4.6%), JC Penney (3.0%), and DSW (2.9%)
round out the Top 5.
Switching gears (literally)…for Electronics,
one in three consumers (32.4%) say their
best bet is Best Buy…Wal-Mart (18.2%),
Circuit City (7.8%), Sears (2.8%), and
Target (2.2%) round out the Top 5. Price
(70.8%) tops the list of reasons to shop a
particular store for video games, TVs,
stereo systems, and the like, followed by
selection (55.6%), location (45.9%), quality
(36.5%), and service (26.4%). One in five
(20.2%) consumers also value knowledgeable
salespeople.
Word of mouth is a powerful form of
advertising beyond the direct control of
marketers,
so which retailers may be benefiting from
positive press from consumers? Using the
Net Promoter® Score* (NPS), respondents were
asked to rate the likelihood that they would
recommend the store they currently shop most
often for Electronics on a scale from 0 (Not
at All Likely) to 10 (Extremely Likely).
Among the top ten stores for Electronics,
Amazon and Costco received the highest
ratings from customers, while discounters
Wal-Mart and Amazon are the least likely to
be recommended to others:
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How likely is it that you would
recommend this store for
Electronics to a friend or
colleague?
(Top 10 Stores for Electronics) |
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Shop Most Often at: |
% Net Promoter Score* (NPS) |
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Amazon |
48.7% |
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Costco |
35.4% |
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Fry’s |
21.9% |
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Best Buy |
14.6% |
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Radio Shack |
11.6% |
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Circuit City |
10.0% |
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Sears |
5.6% |
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Sam’s Club |
4.9% |
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Wal-Mart |
-7.8% |
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Target |
-14.4% |
* Net
Promoter, NPS, and Net Promoter Score are
trademarks of Satmetrix Systems, Inc., Bain
& Company, and Fred Reichheld.
It appears
that positive word of mouth has benefited
Best Buy over the past year…According
to this month’s Consumer Migration Index (CMI),
which tracks those who have immigrated to a
store (new customers within the past year)
against those who have emigrated (left in
the past year) and where a positive rating
spells net growth to a retailer, finds that
Best Buy (with a +6.3 rating) is poised to
remain the biggest big box on the block,
while Circuit City manages a customer
deficit with a -3.7 rating:

Why would
consumers be tempted to switch Electronics
stores?
About one
in three (27.8%) cited high prices and 21.4%
complained of inconvenient locations…poor
customer service (14.0%), poor selection
(11.6%), and competitor advertising (11.4%)
followed.
Big boxes continue to hammer the competition
in Home Improvement/Hardware…with
the majority shopping either Home Depot
(30.0%) or Lowe’s (23.7%), the rest the Top
5 get left in the [saw]dust in this
category: Wal-Mart (5.5%), Menards (3.6%),
ACE Hardware (2.7%).
On the softer side, Wal-Mart continues to
maintain a strong lead in the
Linens/Bedding/Draperies category…17.4%
shop the big discounter most often, followed
by big box Bed Bath & Beyond (11.8%), JC
Penney (6.9%), Linens ‘n Things (5.6%), and
Target (5.4%).
National presence and EDLP help Wal-Mart
maintain its solid lead in the Grocery
aisle…16.5%
shop there most often, followed by Kroger
(6.0%), Publix (3.5%), Safeway (2.6%), and
Meijer (2.2%).
But does Wal-Mart lead when it comes to
consumers shopping for organics?
The
majority (62.1%) shops regularly or
occasionally for organic products, including
produce (51.2%), breads (34.5%), cereals
(32.8%), dairy products (30.7%), and juices
(30.5%). About one in ten (9.6%) of these
“greenies” shops Wal-Mart most often for
organics, followed Whole Foods (6.6%),
Trader Joe's (5.9%), Kroger (4.6%), and
Publix (3.0%).
More than one in four (27.6%) take to the
aisles of Wal-Mart for Health & Beauty Care…Walgreens
(7.5%), CVS (7.3%), Target (5.5%), and Rite
Aid (2.5%) follow not-so-closely behind.
But it’s still the druggists who maintain
the cure for prescription-medicated colds…15.2%
shop Walgreens most often for Prescription
Drugs, followed by CVS (13.1%). Almost one
in ten (9.8%), though, shop Wal-Mart most
often, increasing from 7.9% one year
ago…Rite Aid (5.3%) and Target (1.5%) round
out the Top 5.
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Although February is a month full of
love, it’s likely that consumers won’t be expressing this affection
for one familiar household chore…doing
the laundry. When shopping the Laundry and Fabric Care aisle, close
to one in four consumers (23.4%) shop Wal-Mart most often, followed
by Target (4.5%), Costco (3.7%), Sam’s Club (3.6%), and Kroger
(2.5%). While one in three (33.5%) is most likely to shop a
discounter for Laundry essentials; this number rises to 44.1% among
those earning less than $50,000…one in four (24.9%) $50,000+ wage
earners shops most often at a grocer, slightly higher than average
(19.7%).
It appears consumers are
generally satisfied with the Laundry and Fabric Care shopping
experience in stores…the
vast majority (80.7%) strongly agree or agree that the Laundry
aisles in their store is arranged in an easy to shop manner.
Additionally, seven in ten (69.4%) report that they never have
trouble finding the Laundry and Fabric Care products they want to
buy.
However, among the 30.6% who regularly or occasionally have trouble
finding the Laundry products in their store, what are the reasons
for their consternation?
Among these shoppers, one in five (21.7%) complain of stock-outs,
while 21.3% have trouble finding the brand they want…18.7% have
difficulty finding the exact product form, 18.2% can’t find the
types of products they need, and 17.6% aren’t able to locate the
correct size.
When it comes to motivations for purchasing a particular Laundry and
Fabric Care product brand, consumers opt for effectiveness
over price…more than one in three (35.5%) buy a particular brand because “it works
best,” followed closely by price (34.4%)…sales/promotions (23.4%),
fragrance (20.7%), and coupons (18.8%) round out the top 5.
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Seasonal demand for spring
merchandise, such as Easter apparel and lawn & garden supplies,
lifts the 90 Day Outlook from January, according to the
BIGresearch Diffusion Index (those who will spend less
subtracted from those who will spend more)…However, the current
economic outlook is expected to put a damper on spending
compared to February 2007:
Retail Merchandise
Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(February 08 compared to January 08 and
February 07)
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Category
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January 08
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February 07
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Category
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January 08
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February 07
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Children's
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UP
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DOWN
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Toys and Games
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UP
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DOWN
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Women's Dress
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UP |
DOWN
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CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books
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DOWN
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DOWN
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Women's Casual
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UP
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DOWN
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Electronics
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DOWN
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DOWN
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Men's Dress
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UP
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DOWN
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Groceries
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UP
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DOWN
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Men's Casual
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UP
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DOWN
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Home Improvement
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UP
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DOWN
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Shoes
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UP
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DOWN
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Lawn & Garden
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UP
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DOWN |
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HBC
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UP
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DOWN
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Home Furniture
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UP
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DOWN
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Dining Out
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UP
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DOWN
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Decorative Home Furnishings
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UP
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DOWN
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Sporting Goods
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UP
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DOWN
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Linens/Bedding/Draperies
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UP
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DOWN
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While the 90 Day Outlook
has improved from January, consumers aren’t as likely to be
considering purchasing high-dollar durables in the next six
months…compared
to last month and last year, purchase intentions are down
for computers, furniture, home appliances, housing, jewelry,
DVD/VCR, and digital cameras…major home improvements and
vacation travel flat from January (though still down from
’07), while TV remains flat from last month and rises from
last year.
Six month purchase intentions for autos remain stable from
last month at 11.8%
(down slightly from 12.1% in February ’07)…among those
planning to buy, almost two in five (39.8%) intend to avoid
sticker shock and buy used, the highest reading since August
2007 (39.4%). 43.5% still plan to buy new, while 16.7%
aren’t yet sure. Accordingly, the average price auto buyers
are planning to spend has lowered from $21,150 in January to
$19,830 this month.
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Consumers are thinking responsible
thoughts this month…saving
money, voting in the primaries, and reusable shopping bags top our
list of what’s hot in February. Additionally, young men unwind with
American Gladiators and Guitar Hero, while men 35+ are
rooting for Eli Manning. Romantic getaways, Katherine Heigl, and
clutch purses are favored by women 18 to 35. What’s Not? 89.0% of
consumers agree…if you weren’t born with zebra stripes, you
shouldn’t wear them.
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